Navigating Wellington County’s Real Estate Landscape: A Year in Review and Insights for your 2024 Real estate journey
Wellington County real estate ends the year in a balanced market. The year-to-date figures might be down compared to the previous year, but we are still witnessing that the gap has been growing smaller with each month.
At the end of December, the YTD sales volume had experienced another 18.2% dip from 2022 sales volume. YTD sales finished December at $2.238 billion this year down from the 2022 sales volume of $2.737 billion. The unit sales were trending the same with 2699 units sold by end of December, once again 9% behind last year’s 2970 units.
Looking at the month of December specifically, we saw some changes over the same month in 2022. December Sales volume was $79 million in sales by the end of the month, down 13.5% compared to December 2022 sales of $91 million for the region. Unit sales trended down with only 102 units, and 12% under last year’s 116 units in December. Additionally, there were 121 new listings in December, up 9% from last December’s 111 listings.
Prices in the region were also once again slightly down over prior year. The YTD median sales price was $771,250 at end of December, down 2.8% from last year’s median of $793,750. The year-to-date average sales prices followed this downward trend ending the year at $822,086 which is down almost 8.5% from last year’s average price of $898,124 in the region.
Wellington County’s real estate market has had some fluctuations over the past year, and with activity still down, prices are following on a slightly downward trend.
The average year to date sales prices in Wellington county for each type are:
- Freehold Homes: $922,616 (Average sales price at end of DECEMBER 2023)
- Condominium homes: $613,497 (Average sales price at end of DECEMBER 2023)
- Vacant land sales: $644,914 (Average sales price at end of DECEMBER 2023)
Wellington County’s real estate showed slight market corrections overall this past year. However, monthly average and median sale prices are more or less equal to what they were in the previous year, showing that this market continues to have a strong foundation.
Looking ahead in 2024, we will see a bit of a tipping point as many Canadians accept the reality that the era of ultra low interest rates is gone. The Bank of Canada has held its benchmark interest rate at 5% since July 2023, and while today’s rates seem high compared to the record Pandemic lows we witnessed, it is actually just below the long term average of 5.3% of the past 4 decades from 1980 to end of 2023.
According to Stats Canada, mortgage interest cost was up almost 30% year over year in November 2023. If we take mortgage rate inflation out of the CPI calculation, then inflation is 2.2%, which is close to the Bank of Canada’s inflation goal.
With the changes in consumer spending, and reduced household debt overall, the Bank of Canada is expected to ease off the brake in 2024 and it is anticipated that they will cut the interest rate in response to a slowing economy in combination with inflation edging downward. However, we will likely not experience this until late Q2 in mid year 2024, according to RBC Economics. And that is only if the inflation rate continues to cool as the economy does moving forward, as forecast.
The modest interest rate cuts are also expected to spur activity later this year, leading to a rise in property prices. It is expected that the national aggregate home price is forecast to increase 5.5% year over year in the latter part of 2024.
Thus, if you’re looking to make a move, the data is showing that now is the time to buy before prices go back on the rise in the latter part of 2024. Let’s chat if you’re thinking of making a move this year, give me a call at 519-824-9050 ext. 235 and let’s turn your real estate dreams into an address!
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