Wellington County Real Estate Market: Key Trends Shaping November 2025
The Wellington County real estate market continues its transition into a clearly buyer-leaning environment as 2025 progresses. November data shows softer pricing and declining sales activity. It also shows a sharp rise in available inventory. These conditions are fundamentally reshaping negotiation dynamics across the county. While year-to-date pricing remains relatively stable, monthly indicators signal growing pressure on sellers. They also indicate increasing opportunity for well-positioned buyers.
Insights for Buyers
Buyers are in one of the most favourable negotiating environments Wellington County has seen in recent years. November unit sales declined 17.03% year-over-year to 190 transactions, while new listings surged 23.19% to 409. This imbalance pushed the sales-to-listings ratio down to 46.45%, a 22.52% drop from last year, well within buyer’s market territory. At the same time, expired listings more than doubled, rising 115.38% to 112, indicating that many sellers are struggling to secure acceptable offers at current pricing.
Pricing trends further reinforce buyer leverage. The median sale price fell 3.16% year-over-year to $752,000, while the average sale price dropped a more pronounced 8.4% to $770,922. Buyers benefit not only from lower entry points. They also benefit from increased choice and reduced urgency. This occurs particularly as average days on market year-to-date climbed to 39, up six days from last year.
Insights for Sellers
For sellers, the data underscores the importance of pricing accuracy and market readiness. Sales volume in November declined 24% year-over-year to $146.48 million, driven by both fewer transactions and lower sale prices. With inventory rising sharply, year-to-date new listings are up 29.4%, competition among sellers has intensified, especially in price-sensitive segments. Homes that are not aligned with current market value are increasingly likely to expire rather than sell.
However, it’s important to note the nuances. The broader annual picture shows resilience, particularly in select areas. Year-to-date average sale price is $846,857, up 2.3% from 2024, while the median sale price remains relatively flat at $777,777. Higher-end activity also remains notable, with year-to-date sales over $2 million up 40% compared to last year. Sellers who prepare strategically and price competitively can still achieve strong outcomes, particularly in well-presented homes and premium locations.
📊 Market Outlook
Looking ahead, current conditions suggest continued balance shifting in favour of buyers unless sales momentum strengthens. Year-to-date unit sales are down slightly (-1.22%), while expired listings are up 52.69%, signaling sustained friction between seller expectations and buyer willingness. With the year-to-date sales-to-listings ratio now at 38.30%, pricing discipline will remain critical through the coming months.
At the same time, total year-to-date sales volume has edged up 1.3% to $2.28 billion, indicating that transactions are still occurring, just under different terms. The market is not stalled, but recalibrating. Buyers and sellers who adapt to current realities, supported by accurate pricing and strong negotiation strategies, will be best positioned as Wellington County moves into the next phase of the cycle.
Looking at interest rates, the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25% last week indicating that current levels are appropriate to keep inflation near its 2% target. Canada’s economy grew slightly faster than expected last quarter, though hiring and exports remained soft.
Over the past year, the Bank cut its key lending rate a total of four times, dropping it 100 basis points from 3.25%. At this time, inflation is holding close to the Bank’s comfort zone. This suggests that further rate changes are unlikely in the short term. We can expect Bank Prime to remain at its current level well into 2026.
For consumers, this shift brings greater predictability in borrowing costs. This dynamic could encourage more buyers to step back into the market in 2026. Stable interest rates create a predictable environment, and that predictability boosts buyer confidence.
The Bottom Line: While the overall market is adjusting, stable rates and increasing inventory make this an ideal window. If you have been considering entering the market, now is the definitive time to act. This should be done before this predictable rate environment draws more competition in 2026.
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